This study rigorously examines the efficacy of China’s agricultural carbon emission
reduction policies, with a focus on the initiatives in Anhui Province and their relative
effectiveness when compared to Hubei Province. Through a meticulous review, this
paper underscores agriculture’s critical role in China’s transition towards a sustainable,
low-carbon economy, balancing its function as both a source and a sink for carbon
emissions. Prior to policy implementation in 2015, both provinces exhibited an upward
trend in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, driven by increased agricultural inputs,
notably in nitrogen fertilizers, which surged from approximately 4.82 million tons in
2005 to over 5 million tons by 2015. However, post-policy, a notable reduction in
nitrogen fertilizer usage was observed, with Anhui showing a decline to approximately
4.38 million tons by 2020.
Employing the Propensity Score Matching and Differences-in-Differences (PSM-DID)
analysis alongside a Pooled-Ordinary Least Squares (Pooled-OLS) model, the study
offers a nuanced view of policy impacts. The PSM-DID model revealed a high model
fit (R-squared = 0.95285), but the coefficient of the interaction term T*R was -0.0043
with a p-value of 0.79577, indicating a statistically insignificant policy effect in Anhui.
