SIGNATURE WORK
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2022

Wild ungulates living in close proximity to humans oftentimes face challenges associated with livestock grazing. Previous research suggests that the most abundant livestock species in the Qilian Mountains areas, domestic yak, domestic sheep, and domestic horse, compete extensively with blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), a wild ungulate species endemic to the Qinghai-Himalayan plateau, for resources. This study investigates the impact of human disturbances, in particular, livestock grazing, on blue sheep by using species distribution modeling (SDMs). We sampled the distribution of blue sheep and livestock in the Qilian Mountains National Park in the summer of 2021. MAXENT was first employed to develop SDMs for livestock distribution interpolation within the study plots. Then, we added the predictions of livestock distribution into the set of explanatory variables of our blue sheep SDMs. Results from the best performing model show that blue sheep prefer areas closer to cliffs, water, with higher Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and steeper slope. The best model contains human disturbance and livestock variables, suggesting anthropogenic factors enhance model performance and significantly influence blue sheep distribution. Specifically, the presence probability of domestic horses and distance to human residence and roads are negatively correlated with the predicted presence of blue sheep, and the presence probability of domestic sheep and distance to mining sites show the opposite. Our results indicate livestock species-specific traits influence their relationships with blue sheep, and the exact impact of livestock on blue sheep might involves temporary changes not captured by the current study. This study provides methods to integrate livestock into SDMs at finer resolutions in data deficient settings and has implications for conservation strategies regarding livestock management.