OSW

SIGNATURE WORK
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2023

An Overview and the Future of Cryptocurrencies: A Data-Driven Approach with Prophet Model based on Historical Bitcoin Price Data

Name

Zhitong Chen

Major

Political Economy / Economics

Class

2023

About

Zhitong Chen is a senior student majoring in political economy/economics at Duke Kunshan University. She is the 2021 National Scholarship recipient.

Signature Work Project Overview

This study first outlines a comprehensive overview of the concept of blockchain technology, highlighting its relevance to the cryptocurrency market. It discusses how the decentralized and transparent nature of blockchain technology has made it an attractive alternative to traditional financial systems, especially for the cryptocurrency market. This research further provides a review of relevant literature about blockchain and cryptocurrency to establish the context for the research. The literature review explores the development of blockchain technology, the emergence of cryptocurrencies, and their impact on financial markets. Subsequently, using the price-earnings (PE) ratio, this research assesses the cryptocurrency market’s growth potential. By applying the Prophet model to five years of daily historical data, this paper forecasts the future trend of Bitcoin’s price for the forthcoming one month, three months, six months, and one year. The results demonstrate that the future price of Bitcoin will likely continue its upward trend in the short term but may plateau towards the end of the year. Additionally, the future price of Bitcoin is expected to fall over the next year. This research underscores the importance of data-driven methodologies to anticipate the future price of cryptocurrencies in an exceedingly volatile and unpredictable market. By providing insights into the potential future price of Bitcoin, this research can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions based on market trends, while also advancing policies that promote the growth and stability of the cryptocurrency industry.

Signature Work Presentation Video