SIGNATURE WORK
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2024

This Signature Work aims to apply statistical methods to predict soccer matches. I selected the Bradley-Terry model as the initial framework and expanded it specifically for the soccer domain, incorporating home-field advantage and draw predictions to enhance prediction accuracy. A highlight of this work is the proposal of an original model that integrates club-level factors into the statistical model for match predictions, thereby enhancing the original model from a statistical theory perspective.

I used the English Premier League as the testing ground for my model. Through data analysis during the development of the statistical model for match prediction, I gained insights into the Premier League, as well as explored the impact of Covid-19 on the soccer world. This aspect provided domain-specific insights for our statistical model development and added practical significance and interest to this work.