SIGNATURE WORK
CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2022

Although there is a considerable body of literature on estimating returns to education in China, few studies have explored the general trend of returns to education across time. Using data from nine rounds of the China General Social Survey, this study analyzes the labor market returns to education in China from 2003 to 2017. While OLS estimates based on the Mincerian earnings function support that human capital continues contributing to China’s economic growth, they also indicate a shift in the upward trend of returns to education in the post-reform years. Despite the average number of years of schooling acquired remains increasing, the OLS estimate results suggest that the average returns to education have decreased over the period of study. Furthermore, the degree of decrease in returns differs by gender and region. I also discuss possible explanations for the observed changes, as well as policy implications. These findings can help individuals and families make decisions on investment in education, and also social groups rethink the existing education system.